State and Territory Nomination Allocations for 2025-26: Only 20,350 Places Allocated Against 33,000 Planning Level

The Department of Home Affairs has officially published the 2025-26 state and territory nomination allocations, revealing a significant shortfall between planning levels and actual allocations. While the government announced a planning level of 33,000 places for state nomination visas earlier this year, only 20,350 places have been allocated to states and territories - representing just 61.7% of the planned capacity.

This substantial reduction of 12,650 places (38.3% shortfall) will intensify competition across all state and territory nomination programs for both Subclass 190 and Subclass 491 visas throughout the 2025-26 program year.

Complete State and Territory Allocation Breakdown

The Commonwealth Government announced these allocations on November 4, 2025, distributing 20,350 nomination places across all eight states and territories.

Full Allocation Table

What the Numbers Tell Us

Looking at the distribution, you’ll notice that NSW takes the lead with 3,600 total places, representing 17.7% of the national allocation. Victoria and Western Australia are tied for second place, each receiving 3,400 places (16.7%). Together, these three states control just over half of all state nomination places in Australia - a significant concentration of opportunity in the larger states.

There’s an interesting split when it comes to how states are dividing their allocations between the permanent Subclass 190 and provisional Subclass 491 pathways. The Northern Territory and ACT have taken a balanced approach, splitting their allocations evenly between both visa types. Most other states, however, clearly favor the permanent pathway, allocating more places to the 190 than the 491.

On the smaller end of the spectrum, ACT received 1,600 places (7.9% of the total) and NT got 1,650 places (8.1%). Combined, the two territories receive less than 16% of the national allocation, which makes sense given their smaller populations and economies, but it also means competition might be fierce for these limited spots.

Understanding the 38% Shortfall

Planning Level vs. Actual Allocation

Here’s where things get really interesting - and frankly, concerning for many applicants. Earlier this year, the government announced a planning level of 33,000 places for state nomination visas. But when the actual allocations came through? Only 20,350 places. That’s a massive shortfall of 12,650 places, or 38.3% less than what was initially indicated.

This represents one of the largest gaps between planning levels and actual allocations in recent migration program history. It’s not just a small adjustment - it’s a fundamental shift that changes the game for everyone applying through state nomination pathways.

What This Means for You

If you’re planning to apply (or already have an EOI in the system), this reduction has some immediate and unavoidable implications that you need to understand.

First, let’s talk about competition. With fewer nomination places available but likely the same or even higher number of applicants, the math isn’t in anyone’s favor. You can expect higher minimum scores and stricter selection criteria across all states. The waiting times from when you submit your EOI to when you might receive an invitation are also likely to stretch out - we’re talking months, potentially extending into the 6-18 month range for most occupations.

States are going to become much more selective about who they invite. They’ll be focusing heavily on critical occupation shortages - think healthcare workers, trades in high demand, and specialized engineers. If you don’t have strong state connections like current employment or local study, your application will struggle to stand out. Job offers and employer support, which were always valuable, now carry significantly more weight in the selection process. Expect points thresholds to creep up throughout the year as states work through their limited allocations.

There’s also a strategic timing element here that you can’t ignore. With such tight allocations, some states may exhaust their places earlier in the program year than usual. If that happens, they might pause invitations entirely until new allocations are provided (if they ever are). This makes the timing of your application more critical than ever before.

State-by-State Analysis

Victoria (VIC) - 3,400 Places

Victoria received a total of 3,400 places, split as 2,700 for Subclass 190 and just 700 for the regional 491 pathway. This gives Victoria the largest single-state allocation for the permanent 190 visa nationally, which clearly shows the state’s strong preference for the permanent pathway over the provisional option.

If you’re targeting Victoria, the 2025-26 program continues to heavily prioritize candidates with Victorian employment and local study credentials. Your best strategy? Secure Victorian employment if at all possible - even a few months of work in the state can dramatically strengthen your case. Victorian qualifications are also highly valued in the selection process.

One thing to note: with only 700 places allocated to the regional 491 pathway, competition for Regional Victoria nominations is going to be intense despite the regional status.

New South Wales (NSW) - 3,600 Places

NSW comes in with the highest total allocation nationally at 3,600 places, divided between 2,100 for the 190 and a substantial 1,500 for the 491 pathway. That regional allocation represents 41.7% of NSW’s total, which is significant and offers real opportunities for those willing to look beyond Sydney.

It’s worth noting though that despite having the largest allocation, NSW’s numbers represent a 28% reduction from 2024-25, so competition will still be fierce. If you’re targeting NSW, consider the regional pathway seriously - there are more places available there. Current NSW employment is critical for competitiveness, and the state continues to prioritize healthcare, ICT, engineering, and construction occupations.

Western Australia (WA) - 3,400 Places

Western Australia secured 3,400 places, split fairly evenly with 2,000 for the 190 and 1,400 for the 491. This balanced distribution between metropolitan and regional pathways reflects WA’s strong economic growth and widespread skills needs across the state. Regional WA actually accounts for 41.2% of the state’s allocation, which creates genuine opportunities outside of Perth.

If WA is on your radar, job offers are highly valuable here, particularly in the mining, resources, healthcare, and construction sectors where the state’s economy is booming. Regional WA provides a substantial alternative pathway - don’t overlook places like Bunbury, Geraldton, or the Pilbara region.

Queensland (QLD) - 2,600 Places

Queensland received 2,600 places total, with a clear emphasis on the permanent pathway - 1,850 places for the 190 and only 750 for the regional 491. Queensland’s program has always favored the permanent visa route, but this limited regional allocation means competition for 491 nominations will be particularly intense, even in regional areas.

For Queensland applicants, focus your efforts on the 190 pathway where more places are available. Queensland employment and study connections are essential for success, and the state continues to prioritize tourism, healthcare, and construction sectors - all critical to the state’s economy.

South Australia (SA) - 2,250 Places

South Australia’s allocation of 2,250 places (1,350 for the 190 and 900 for the 491) represents a significant increase from the earlier interim allocation many were worried about. The state is dedicating 40% of its allocation to the regional pathway, which makes sense given SA’s strong focus on addressing skills shortages across the entire state, not just metropolitan Adelaide.

Both metro Adelaide and regional SA are well-supported under these allocations. Healthcare, engineering, and trades are highly prioritized occupations. If you’ve already submitted an ROI to South Australia during the 2024-25 year, you may receive priority consideration as the state works through its existing pool of candidates.

Tasmania (TAS) - 1,850 Places

Tasmania received 1,850 places, split as 1,200 for the 190 and 650 for the 491. Here’s an interesting quirk about Tasmania: the entire state qualifies as regional for 491 purposes, yet the state still shows a clear preference for the permanent pathway with almost double the allocation going to the 190.

The good news for Tasmania applicants is that all locations across the state are eligible for both pathways, giving you flexibility in where you settle. Healthcare, aged care, tourism, and agriculture remain the priority sectors. Tasmania values strong community connections in their selection process, so demonstrating genuine commitment to settling in the state will work in your favor.

Northern Territory (NT) - 1,650 Places

The Northern Territory secured 1,650 places with an almost perfectly balanced split: 850 for the 190 and 800 for the 491. NT is the only jurisdiction with such an even distribution between pathways, which makes sense since the entire territory qualifies as regional anyway. This allocation reflects NT’s ongoing population growth initiatives and their openness to both permanent and provisional visa holders.

If you’re considering NT, you have real flexibility in choosing between the 190 and 491 pathways. Employment in the Northern Territory is highly advantageous for selection, and the territory prioritizes healthcare, education, trades, and hospitality occupations - all critical to servicing the territory’s communities and growing economy.

Australian Capital Territory (ACT) - 1,600 Places

The ACT received the smallest allocation at 1,600 places, split perfectly 50/50 with 800 for each pathway. This represents an 11% reduction from 2024-25, which will tighten an already competitive program. The Canberra Matrix system continues to govern selections, which operates quite differently from other states.

ACT employment is the most heavily weighted factor in the Matrix scoring system - it’s really the make-or-break element for most applicants. Both pathways are equally available, and the territory prioritizes public service, healthcare, education, and ICT sectors, which aligns with Canberra’s role as the nation’s capital and a hub for government and technology services.

Comparison with Previous Program Years

Year-Over-Year Changes

To really understand how significant these numbers are, let’s look at the historical trends:

This is a dramatic reversal. Just last year, we saw a healthy 12.5% increase in state nomination allocations. This year? A 35.4% drop. This represents the sharpest single-year reduction in recent program history, and it aligns with the broader migration program settings that cap total permanent migration at 185,000 places.

Planning Level vs. Allocation History

What makes this year particularly unusual is the gap between what was planned and what was actually delivered:

In the past two years, actual allocations came pretty close to planning levels - around 93-98% utilization. This year, we’re sitting at just 61.7%, which is unprecedented.

What does this mean? There are a few possible explanations. The Commonwealth may be taking a more conservative allocation approach, leaving room to issue additional allocations later in the program year if needed. They might be holding places in strategic reserve for critical needs that emerge. Or this could simply reflect alignment with broader migration reduction objectives driven by political and community sentiment. Whatever the reason, the practical effect is the same: fewer places available right now for skilled migrants seeking state nomination.

Impact on Visa Processing Timelines

Expected Timeline Changes

Let’s talk about what these reduced allocations mean for processing timelines, because this is where applicants will really feel the impact.

The time from submitting your EOI to receiving a state invitation used to typically range from 3-9 months. For 2025-26, you should realistically expect 6-18 months, and possibly longer if you’re in a high-demand occupation where competition is particularly intense. State nomination processing itself should remain relatively stable at 6-12 weeks, though this could extend if states see application volumes surge. States will prioritize complete, decision-ready applications, so make sure yours is thorough.

Once you’re invited to apply for the visa itself, current processing times run 8-15 months for most applicants. Don’t expect this to improve - with higher volumes flowing through the system, it’s unlikely to speed up. Priority processing will continue for critical occupations, but for everyone else, patience is essential.

Looking at the total timeline from EOI to visa grant, a realistic expectation is 18-30 months. Yes, that’s potentially two and a half years from start to finish. This will vary significantly based on your state, occupation, and individual circumstances, but these extended timelines need to factor into your personal and professional planning.

Managing Expectations

If you already have an EOI in the system, the most important thing to understand is that delays are system-wide, not individual. It’s not your application specifically - everyone is facing the same constraints. Keep your documents current and valid throughout these extended timelines, especially your skills assessment and English test results. If your migration timeline is urgent, you may need to seriously consider alternative pathways like employer sponsorship.

For prospective applicants, submit your EOI early in the program year if you can - being at the front of the queue matters more than ever. Ensure your application is complete and decision-ready before you submit; any delays or requests for additional information will only extend an already long process.

Allocation Methodology and Criteria

How Allocations Are Determined

The Commonwealth Government considers multiple factors when distributing state nomination allocations:

Economic factors:

• State economic performance and growth projections
• Labor market needs and skills shortages
• Industry development priorities
• Infrastructure project requirements

Demographic considerations:

• Population size and distribution
• Regional development objectives
• Community capacity and infrastructure
• Settlement services availability

Performance metrics:

• Previous year utilization rates
• Processing efficiency and timeframes
• Nomination quality and visa grant rates
• State program management effectiveness

Federal priorities:

• Overall migration program settings
• Regional Australia development objectives
• Critical skills shortage addressing
• Population distribution strategies

Why the Significant Reduction?

Several factors likely contributed to the 38% allocation shortfall:

Policy alignment:

• Consistent with government’s migration reduction objectives
• Matches overall program settings at 185,000 places
• Reflects community and political sentiment on migration

Processing capacity:

• Department of Home Affairs processing constraints
• State nomination processing backlogs
• Visa decision-making capacity limitations

Strategic management:

• Conservative initial allocation with potential for increases
• Reserve capacity for critical shortages that emerge
• Flexibility to respond to changing economic conditions

Quality focus:

• Emphasis on better matching of skills to needs
• Prioritizing quality of nominations over quantity
• Ensuring successful settlement and employment outcomes

Strategic Implications for Different Applicant Groups

For Healthcare Professionals

If you’re a healthcare professional, you’re in arguably the best position despite the reduced allocations. Healthcare remains a critical priority across all jurisdictions - it’s consistently the top occupation category in most states, and you may receive priority processing even with these tighter numbers. Both metro and regional pathways are genuinely available to you, which gives you more options than most other occupations.

Your strategy should focus on obtaining state-specific registration where possible - this shows commitment and removes barriers for employers. Secure job offers or at least expressions of interest from Australian healthcare providers, as these dramatically strengthen your application. Consider regional pathways seriously; they often process faster and have less competition, especially in areas experiencing acute healthcare worker shortages.

When crafting your application, highlight any experience in critical skills shortage areas like aged care, mental health, or rural medicine. These are pressure points in the Australian healthcare system, and states are desperate to fill these gaps.

In terms of which states to target, the good news is that all states prioritize healthcare. Regional areas through the 491 pathway offer additional opportunities with less competition. You might also consider smaller states like SA, TAS, or NT where you’ll face less competition from other healthcare professionals while still accessing quality of life and career opportunities.

For IT and Engineering Professionals

If you’re in technology or engineering, I’ll be honest - you’re facing increased competition. These occupations consistently generate high application volumes, and with reduced allocations, many applicants are competing for limited places. Points thresholds are likely to increase significantly throughout the year as states select only the most competitive candidates.

Your strategy needs to be laser-focused on maximizing points in every way possible: English (aim for Superior, not just Proficient), work experience, qualifications, and any additional points you can claim. Develop state connections proactively through networking and actual job applications - even unsuccessful applications demonstrate your genuine interest in working in a specific state.

Consider positioning yourself in emerging tech sectors like AI, cybersecurity, or fintech, where skills shortages are particularly acute. Target states with specific tech industry growth such as NSW, VIC, and QLD, where the industry ecosystem is most developed and employers are actively recruiting.

Given the competition, you should also seriously explore alternative pathways. The National Innovation Visa exists specifically for exceptional talent in tech and could be faster if you qualify. Employer sponsorship (the 482 visa leading to 186 permanent residence) bypasses state nomination allocations entirely. And if you’re a very high points holder - think 95+ points - the federal 189 pathway remains an option, though recent invitation rounds show it’s highly competitive too.

For Tradespeople and Technicians

Tradespeople are in an enviable position. Australia continues to experience critical shortages across construction, infrastructure, and resources sectors, and this demand isn’t going away. Regional opportunities are particularly strong for trades, and both metro and regional pathways are genuinely viable options for you.

If you’re a tradesperson, highlight any specialized skills you have - HVAC, electrical, plumbing, and similar trades are in particularly high demand. Seriously consider the regional pathway for faster outcomes; areas outside the major cities are crying out for skilled tradespeople and competition is lower. Secure job offers from Australian employers where possible - construction companies and infrastructure contractors are often willing to provide offers to qualified tradespeople before they arrive. Target states with major infrastructure projects underway like NSW, VIC, and WA, where demand is most acute.

The 491 pathway is worth serious consideration. It offers 15 bonus points to your application, substantial regional allocations are available in most states, and there’s a clear pathway to permanent residence via the 191 visa after three years of living and working in regional Australia.

For Education Professionals

Teachers face variable demand depending on location and specialty. There’s strong demand in regional areas and for specific specialties, but metropolitan areas are quite competitive. Early childhood and special education teachers are particularly sought after across all locations.

If you’re a teacher, obtain teacher registration in your target state before applying - this removes a major barrier and shows genuine commitment. Seriously consider regional pathways, particularly rural and remote teaching positions where demand is strongest and competition lowest. Highlight any specialized teaching areas you have, especially STEM subjects or special needs education, as these are priority areas.

Focus your efforts on states with known teacher shortages like WA, NT, and regional areas of VIC and NSW. The demand in regional areas across all states is significant, making the 491 pathway viable with a clear path to permanent residence. Teacher registration itself often assists with state nomination scoring, as it demonstrates your qualification to practice immediately upon arrival.

Maximizing Your Competitiveness

Points Optimization Strategies

With these reduced allocations, maximizing your points isn’t just helpful - it’s critical to having any chance at all.

Let’s start with English language proficiency, because this is one area where you have direct control and can make a significant impact. Target Superior English (20 points) rather than settling for Proficient (10 points). That 10-point difference could be what separates an invitation from rejection. Consider the new test options available from August 2025 - you might find one format suits your strengths better. Allow time for multiple attempts if needed; most people don’t get their best score on the first try, and Superior English significantly increases your competitiveness across all visa pathways.

Work experience points require thorough documentation. Make sure you’re documenting all relevant skilled employment thoroughly with detailed reference letters from every employer. Your skills assessment should cover the maximum experience period possible - don’t leave years on the table if they qualify. Pay attention to how offshore versus Australian experience is weighted; Australian experience generally carries more weight in state selection criteria even if the points are the same.

When it comes to qualifications, a doctorate provides the maximum educational points, and Australian qualifications provide additional points beyond the base education points. Consider whether additional qualifications would benefit your application, but make sure they’re in a field related to your nominated occupation - unrelated qualifications don’t help.

If you’re applying as a couple, partner skills can provide a strategic advantage. A partner with a skills assessment adds 10 points, while a partner with competent English adds 5 points. These aren’t trivial numbers. Just ensure your partner genuinely meets all requirements before claiming the points - false claims will torpedo your entire application.

Beyond the main factors, look for additional points opportunities: the NAATI CCL test adds 5 points for demonstrating community language skills, a Professional Year in Australia adds 5 points, regional study in Australia adds 5 points, and of course state nomination itself adds 5 points (for 190) or a whopping 15 points (for 491).

State Connection Strategies

State connections have become increasingly critical in this competitive environment, and they’re weighted differently across different states.

Employment connections are the most heavily weighted factor in virtually all states. If you can manage it, aim for a minimum of 3-6 months of employment in your target state before applying. Even job offers are valuable if you don’t have current employment there, though actually working in the state is far more powerful. Make sure your employment is in your nominated occupation or something closely related - working in an unrelated field doesn’t demonstrate the state connection they’re looking for.

Study connections carry significant weight too. If you have Australian qualifications from your target state, make sure you’re highlighting this prominently. Recent study (within the last 2-3 years) is most valuable, as it shows current connection to the state. Higher qualifications like Masters or PhDs are more competitive than undergraduate degrees. Just ensure your study was full-time and meets the duration requirements - one semester doesn’t count.

Family connections are usually lower weighted than employment or study, but they’re still beneficial and worth claiming if you have them. Generally, this means close family (siblings or parents) living in the state, and they must be permanent residents or Australian citizens, not temporary visa holders. Some states have specific family connection requirements, so check your target state’s criteria carefully.

Community engagement is harder to quantify but can make a difference in borderline cases. This means demonstrated commitment to the state through professional network membership, volunteer activities, or clear research and familiarity with the state demonstrated in your application. States want people who will stay and contribute, not those who will move to another state as soon as they get permanent residence.

Application Timing Considerations

When you apply can be almost as important as what’s in your application. Strategic timing can genuinely improve your outcomes.

Early in the program year (July-September), the full allocation is available and states are more receptive to invitations since they’re starting fresh. The disadvantage is that policy details may still be finalizing, and you might be applying into some uncertainty. This timing is best for high-points candidates who are ready to apply and confident in their competitiveness.

Mid-program year (October-March) is when most applicants should be aiming to apply. By this point, policy settings are clear, invitation patterns have been established, and you can see what points scores are being selected. The downside is that allocations are partially depleted and you know exactly how stiff the competition is. This timing works for most applicants who have complete, ready-to-go applications.

Late in the program year (April-June) can work for some people. A few states may issue final invitations to clear their remaining allocation, but frankly, most allocations are exhausted by this point and thresholds are at their highest. This timing only makes sense for exceptional candidates or those with unique skills that states desperately need.

The optimal strategy? Submit your EOI as soon as you’re genuinely competitive. Ensure all documents are current and valid before you submit - nothing kills an application faster than expired documents or incomplete information. Be ready to respond quickly to invitations; states often have tight timeframes and missing deadlines means losing your spot. Monitor state invitation patterns throughout the year and adjust your strategy based on what you’re seeing.

Alternative Pathways to Consider

Given how competitive state nomination has become, it’s worth seriously exploring alternative pathways that might actually be faster or more achievable for your circumstances.

Employer Sponsorship (Subclass 482/186)

Employer sponsorship is completely separate from state allocation limitations, which is its biggest advantage right now. If you can secure an Australian employer willing to sponsor you, you bypass this entire state nomination bottleneck. It’s a direct pathway with employer support, can process faster for some occupations, and provides a clear pathway to permanent residence through the 186 visa after a few years on the 482.

What you need: an Australian employer genuinely willing to sponsor you (not just interested, but actually willing to commit), your occupation must be on the relevant skilled occupation list, you must meet the skills and experience requirements, and your employer must meet their sponsorship obligations including paying market salary rates.

The considerations: you’ll be tied to that specific employer initially, which means if the job doesn’t work out, your visa situation becomes complicated. The occupation lists are different from state nomination, so check whether your occupation qualifies. Your employer bears some costs and administrative burden, which can be a hurdle for smaller companies. Labor market testing may be required to show they couldn’t find an Australian to fill the role.

Federal Skilled Independent (Subclass 189)

The federal Skilled Independent visa offers some appealing advantages: no state residence obligations, permanent residence from the day of grant, no employer sponsorship required, and complete flexibility in where you settle in Australia. The problem? You need very high points - typically 95+ to have any realistic chance.

Your occupation must be on the skilled occupation list, you must meet all points test requirements, and you need an invitation through SkillSelect. Recent trends aren’t encouraging. The November 2025 invitation round shows very high thresholds, limited invitations compared to application volumes, and a focus on critical occupations. This is a very competitive pathway that only works for the highest-scoring applicants.

National Innovation Visa (Subclass 858)

The National Innovation Visa is designed for truly exceptional talent and offers direct permanent residence with no points test required. Processing is fast for approved applicants, and it recognizes exceptional achievement in a way that the points test never could.

But here’s the reality: you need exceptional achievement in a specialized field with evidence of outstanding contribution recognized internationally. You need endorsement from a relevant Australian body, and you must meet the specific criteria for either the talent, business, or research stream. This pathway is designed for researchers with international recognition, business innovators with a proven track record, tech talent with exceptional achievements, and field-leading professionals. If you’re world-class in your field, this could be your path. If you’re just very good at what you do, it probably isn’t.

Regional Employer Sponsorship (Subclass 494)

Regional employer sponsorship offers some distinct advantages over metro sponsorship: broader occupation lists, less competition, and genuine pathway to permanent residence. If you can secure a regional Australian employer willing to sponsor you, this could be more achievable than chasing state nomination or metro sponsorship.

You need a regional employer willing to sponsor (which is often easier than finding metro sponsorship since there’s less competition for these roles), your occupation must be on the regional skilled occupation list (which is broader), you must meet skills and experience requirements, and you need genuine commitment to living in the regional area.

The key consideration is the regional residence requirement - you must live and work in regional Australia while on the provisional visa. After 3 years, there’s a clear pathway to the 191 permanent residence visa. With regional development becoming a national priority, opportunities in regional areas are growing and shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will additional allocations be provided during the year?

It’s possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Some program years have seen supplementary allocations mid-year, particularly if initial allocations are exhausted early, critical skills shortages emerge that need urgent addressing, states demonstrate strong utilization and need, or economic conditions change substantially.

My advice? Don’t delay your application hoping for additional allocations. Apply based on the allocations that exist right now. If more places are added later, great - but planning your migration timeline around a possibility is risky.

How does the shortfall affect my existing EOI?

Your existing EOI remains valid and active in the system - that doesn’t change. But practically speaking, competition just increased significantly for the same number of places. Selection thresholds will likely rise, invitation timeframes will probably extend, and you might want to look at whether you can improve your points score while you’re waiting. Every additional point could make the difference this year.

Can I apply to multiple states simultaneously?

Absolutely. You can (and probably should) indicate multiple state preferences in your SkillSelect EOI. Just understand that each state has completely different requirements and selection processes. Focus your main efforts on states where you have the strongest connections, but prepare state-specific applications and documentation for any state you’re interested in. If you receive invitations from multiple states, you’ll need to make a choice - but respond promptly to any invitation you receive because they come with tight deadlines.

What if my preferred state exhausts its allocation?

If a state fills its allocation before you receive an invitation, they’ll pause invitations until new allocations are provided (if they ever are). Your EOI remains active in the system for 2 years, so you’re not starting from scratch, but you might be waiting a while. Consider pivoting to alternative states with similar occupation needs, or seriously explore other visa pathways like employer sponsorship or the 189 if you have high enough points.

How are the allocations split between 190 and 491?

The splits vary significantly by state, as you can see in the allocation table earlier in this article. Most states clearly favor the 190 (permanent) over the 491 (provisional). NT and ACT are the exceptions, splitting evenly between the two pathways. WA and NSW allocate substantial numbers to both pathways. Your strategy should be to consider both pathways to maximize your opportunities - don’t just fixate on the permanent visa if the regional provisional pathway offers you a faster route.

Will the 33,000 planning level actually be honored?

That’s the million-dollar question, and currently it’s unclear. The 33,000 was a planning level, not a guaranteed allocation. Right now, only 20,350 places have been allocated, leaving 12,650 places unaccounted for. These might be allocated later in the year, they might be held in strategic reserve, or they might be reallocated to other visa classes entirely. Monitor official channels for updates, but again, don’t base your plans on maybes.

How do processing backlogs affect allocations?

Processing backlogs can significantly impact how states use their allocations. States may prioritize processing existing applications before issuing new invitations. New invitations may be limited while they work through backlogs. Some states might even pause invitations temporarily to catch up on processing. It varies significantly by state - some are much more efficient than others.

Monitoring for Updates

Official Information Sources

Stay informed through these authoritative channels:

Federal government:

• Department of Home Affairs
• State and Territory Nomination Allocations
• SkillSelect

State-specific sources:

• NSW Migration
• Victoria
• Queensland
• South Australia
• Western Australia
• Tasmania
• Northern Territory
• ACT Canberra Matrix

What to Watch For

Key announcements to monitor:

Supplementary allocations:

• Additional places may be announced mid-year
• Usually issued if initial allocations exhausted early
• Monitor departmental announcements

Policy changes:

• State eligibility criteria updates
• Occupation list revisions
• Processing priority changes
• Selection methodology adjustments

Invitation patterns:

• Minimum points thresholds by occupation
• Frequency of invitation rounds
• Number of invitations per round
• Allocation utilization rates

Federal program adjustments:

• Overall migration program changes
• Skilled migration priority shifts
• New visa pathways or programs
• Processing improvements or delays

Key Takeaways

1. Significant shortfall: Only 20,350 places allocated vs. 33,000 planning level (38.3% gap)
2. Increased competition: Fewer places means higher thresholds across all states and occupations
3. State variations: Allocations range from 1,600 (ACT) to 3,600 (NSW) with different 190/491 splits
4. Strategic approach essential: Maximize points, build state connections, consider timing carefully
5. Regional opportunities: 491 pathway offers 7,500 places (36.9% of total) with 15 bonus points
6. Alternative pathways: Consider employer sponsorship, 189, or National Innovation Visa
7. Long-term planning: Extended timelines likely - factor 18-30 months from EOI to visa grant
8. Monitor updates: Watch for potential supplementary allocations and policy changes

Next Steps for Applicants

Immediate Actions

Assess your competitiveness:

1. Calculate your current points using our Points Calculator
2. Identify areas for improvement (English, experience, qualifications)
3. Research target states and their specific requirements
4. Compare your profile to recent invitation trends

Optimize your profile:

1. Pursue higher English test scores if below Superior
2. Ensure skills assessment covers all relevant experience
3. Consider additional certifications or qualifications
4. Explore NAATI CCL or Professional Year opportunities

Build state connections:

1. Research employment opportunities in target state
2. Network with professional associations
3. Consider study pathways if onshore
4. Document all state connections thoroughly

Submit SkillSelect EOI:

1. Create or update your EOI with accurate information
2. Indicate preferred states (consider multiple options)
3. Ensure all details current and verifiable
4. Set up notifications for invitation updates

Long-Term Planning

While awaiting invitation:

• Continue gaining skilled employment experience
• Maintain document currency (skills assessment, English tests)
• Monitor state invitation patterns and adjust strategy
• Build professional network in Australia if possible
• Consider upskilling in critical shortage areas

Alternative strategy development:

• Research employer sponsorship opportunities
• Investigate regional employment pathways
• Consider business or investor visa eligibility
• Explore Global Talent or Innovation visa options
• Consult registered migration agent for personalized advice

Financial and personal planning:

• Budget for extended timeline (18-30 months)
• Maintain employment and career development
• Keep family informed of realistic timeframes
• Prepare for potential relocation costs
• Research settlement requirements for target state

Conclusion

The 2025-26 state and territory nomination allocations present a challenging environment for skilled migrants, with only 20,350 places allocated against a 33,000 planning level. This 38% shortfall will intensify competition across all states and visa subclasses, requiring applicants to adopt strategic, well-prepared approaches.

Success in this competitive landscape demands thorough preparation: maximizing points, building genuine state connections, demonstrating critical skills, and timing applications strategically. The data shows clear winners - NSW, Victoria, and Western Australia command over half of all allocations - but opportunities exist across all jurisdictions for well-qualified candidates who align with state priorities.

For those finding state nomination too competitive, alternative pathways merit serious consideration. Employer sponsorship, the federal 189 pathway for high-points candidates, and specialized programs like the National Innovation Visa all provide viable routes to Australian permanent residence without competing for state allocation places.

The key to navigating this environment is realistic planning, strategic preparation, and flexibility. Monitor official channels for potential supplementary allocations, stay informed about policy changes, and be ready to respond quickly when opportunities arise. While the reduced allocations present challenges, thousands of skilled migrants will successfully navigate state nomination programs in 2025-26 - thorough preparation and strategic approach are the differentiators.

Last updated: November 18, 2025. This article is based on official allocations published by the Department of Home Affairs. Always refer to official sources for the most current information. For personalized advice about your specific circumstances, contact our registered migration agents.